Pursuing The Cup: Contending Without Seidenberg

The March 5th trade deadline is fast approaching and the Bruins are at the top of the Atlantic division, leading the number two Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 points and a game in hand. That’s good for second in the Eastern Conference, only trailing the Penguins by 5 points with a game in hand. With 25 games left for the Bruins, they are in position to head into the playoffs strong.

To effectively compete this year, the Bruins have an important question to answer. How do they plan to contend without Dennis Seidenberg, who is out for the season due to a torn ACL/MCL? Do the Bruins try find a top pairing defenseman to fill the void? Or do the Bruins push through the playoffs as they stand and maybe bolster their young defense with a veteran depth defenseman who can provide some stability?

At the Olympic break Peter Chiarelli made comments which give the impression that there is no urgency to change anything, mostly related to the recent performance of young rookies and defensive call-ups.

With each passing game, I see our D maturing, I see them making fewer mistakes, and it makes it a little easier on me. But I always feel that we need eight good NHL defenders going in to the playoffs.

…you’d like to think that there is a player with a little bit of Seids’ [Dennis Seidenberg] defending that we could find, and [that could] help us. But this year’s been a story about our depth, and I’ve been happy with it. (CSNNE – @HackswithHaggs)

I recently posted about the impact Seidenberg’s injury has had and how the Bruins have coped. Prior to Seidenberg’s injury the Bruins held opponents to 76% of their Goals-For Average (GFA). In the first six games after Seidenberg’s injury, this number skyrocketed to 127%, but settled down to 74% in the last thirteen games before the break. This maturation over the last thirteen games is what Chiarelli references in his quote.

Unfortunately the Bruins have not been able to consistently handle key Divisional opponents after Seidenberg’s injury. The Senators (142%), Maple Leafs (146%), and Canadiens (162%) have all scored well above their GFA’s. Tough Western Conference match-ups like the Ducks (151%) and Kings (154%) also scored more than their GFA’s. These are the types of teams the Bruins will need to beat while pursuing The Cup.

The minutes that Seidenberg would typically play have mostly gone to Matt Bartkowski, who has seen a 19.34% increase to his time on ice since the injury. The problem is that when the Playoffs arrive, Seidenberg’s usage on the ice and in the penalty kill tends to increase. When the Bruins won The Cup in 2011, Seidenberg played over 4 minutes more per game versus the regular season, 1 minute of which was on the penalty kill.

Matt Bartkowski has already shouldered the bulk of Seidenberg’s minutes but is he capable of adding more in the playoffs? If he does take those minutes, can he truly be effective against top competition? Prior to this season he had 14 games of regular season experience and 7 games of playoff experience. I won’t argue that Bartkowski has emerged this season as an NHL defenseman, but with the youth on the backend I think you need to bring in a veteran player. Someone who plays strong on the blue line and can play big situational minutes. I don’t believe there is a number two defenseman that won’t cost the Bruins one of the young players Chiarelli sees maturing, but Chiarelli also says he wants a solid set of 8 defensemen to roll into the playoffs.

A number of names have been connected to the Bruins. Andrew MacDonald from the Islanders, Dan Girardi from the Rangers, and Chris Phillips from the Senators to name a few. The guys over at Days of Y’Orr had an interesting write up on Andrej Meszaros from the Flyers. Only the Islanders are not currently in the playoff structure or very much in the hunt and their star, John Tavares, is out for the season after being injured in the Olympics. Those players just might not be available, or may require the Bruins to give up too much.

Which brings me to an option for depth and insurance for players like Dougie Hamilton and Adam McQuaid who have been plagued by injuries this year. A player that can be picked up for for a mid-round pick or two, but brings solid defense and can fill situational minutes. Mike Weaver from the Florida Panthers. Weaver is a veteran, right-shot, stay at home defenseman who would add stability, block shots, and can play a ton of short handed minutes.

Weaver is definitely not the flashiest name out there, but he brings much needed experience. He is a workhorse who contributes every game. The Panthers already have a lot of young defensive depth and would probably be looking for picks to aid in rebuilding, so the Bruins wouldn’t be forced to part with one of their emerging defensemen. Finally, Weaver has an expiring contract and a cap friendly $1,100,000 salary that is perfect for a playoff rental. The downside would be that the defensive depth would be lopsided towards right-shot players, where the Bruins prefer to have players on their strong side.

Going into the playoffs your defensive pairings could look like the following.

5 on 5

Zdeno Chara – Johnny Boychuk
Matt Bartkowski – Dougie Hamilton*
Torey Krug – Mike Weaver (Kevan Miller / Adam McQuaid)

* You could probably even play Weaver with Bartkowski 5 on 5 if you wanted to bring some experience to the second pairing.

4 on 5

Zdeno Chara – Johnny Boychuk
Matt Bartkowski – Mike Weaver

For a young defenseman, having an experienced partner allows you to play with confidence. Just look at how Kevan Miller played when he was paired with Chara at the end of the game against the LA Kings. He goes hard to the corner and levels Dustin Brown because he knows he has Chara behind him (via @PeteBlackburn). That was in the final 4 minutes of play with the Bruins only up by one goal.

Weaver isn’t the perfect solution to Seidenberg’s absence and I’d love for the Bruins to make a splash at the deadline. But if the players aren’t available on the market, or the asking price is too high, I’d like them to strengthen their defense by bringing on someone experienced and reliable. Weaver fits that mold without forcing you to give up young assets, even though he may bring more groans then cheers if he were to be acquired.